Explained: Why Bernstein prefers MCX over BSE as volumes plummet amid CAS chaos

Bernstein has favoured MCX over BSE as commodity derivatives volumes maintain strong momentum while equity derivatives activity weakens amid the Closing Auction Session. The brokerage expects MCX's growth to support earnings upgrades, while BSE faces moderating volumes, slowing market share gains and a sharp deceleration in earnings growth over the coming years. The brokerage sees strong momentum in commodity derivatives, with volumes remaining strong despite the Closing Auction Session's (CAS) impact. This shift is attributed to the growing demand for commodity derivatives, which is expected to support earnings upgrades for MCX. In contrast, BSE's equity derivatives activity has weakened, leading to moderating volumes and a decline in market share gains. As a result, BSE is expected to face a sharp deceleration in earnings growth over the coming years. Bernstein's prediction is based on its analysis of the market trends and the impact of the CAS on commodity derivatives trading. The brokerage expects MCX's growth to be a key driver of earnings upgrades, while BSE faces significant challenges in the coming years. With the market share gains slowing down, BSE is expected to struggle to maintain its position in the market. The sharp deceleration in earnings growth is attributed to the decline in equity derivatives activity, which is expected to have a negative impact on BSE's bottom line. Bernstein's preference for MCX over BSE is driven by its analysis of the market trends and the impact of the CAS on commodity derivatives trading. The brokerage's prediction is based on its assessment of the market conditions and the expected growth trajectory of MCX. As a result, MCX is expected to benefit from the growing demand for commodity derivatives, while BSE faces significant challenges in the coming years.